PwC ha presentato l’Entertainment&Media Outlook 2014-2018. Per le aziende è tempo di prendere l’iniziativa: con la crescita del digitale, la pubblicità guiderà la migrazione. La spesa totale per i media e l’intrattenimento digitale.
(esclusa quella per l’accesso a Internet) è prevista in crescita a un tasso annuale del 12,2% (CAGR) tra il 2013 e il 2018 e rappresenterà il 65% della crescita della spesa globale per media e intrattenimento – quasi due dollari ogni tre dollari spesi. La pubblicità sta aprendo la strada; nel 2018, il 33% dei ricavi pubblicitari totali verranno dal digitale, rispetto al 17% dei ricavi derivanti dalla spesa dei consumatori. Bisognerà saper applicare una mentalità digitale e saper “monetizzare” il consumatore digitale.
Scarica il documento PwC – Entertainment&Media Outlook 2014-2018 (pdf)
Pubblicità sempre più digitale, verso sorpasso tv
(Ansa) Anche l’industria dei media e dell’intrattenimento si affida ai byte. Di qui al 2018, la spesa per i media e l’intrattenimento digitale (esclusa quella per l’accesso a Internet) crescerà in media del 12,2% l’anno e assorbirà quasi due dollari ogni tre spesi. Il processo seguirà il modello della pubblicità: tra quattro anni, il 33% dei ricavi pubblicitari totali – percentuale ferma al 14% nel 2009 – verranno dal digitale, rispetto al 17% dei ricavi derivanti dalla spesa dei consumatori. Sono le previsioni di Pwc sull”Entertainment & Media’ (dai quotidiani alla tv e ai videogame) di 54 Paesi, che nel 2018 indicano una pubblicità online, trainata dal mobile (con un tasso di crescita del 21,5%), pronta al sorpasso di quella televisiva, da cui si allontanerebbe di soli 20 miliardi di dollari. Nel dettaglio, è a doppia cifra il tasso di crescita di video (+28,1%) e musica in streaming (+13,4%). Dal punto di vista geografico, nel 2018 il mercato cinese dei media e dell’intrattenimento dovrebbe superare quello giapponese, restando secondo solo agli Stati Uniti. I dati relativi all’Italia verranno pubblicati dopo l’estate, ma Pwc ha già anticipato che nel settore la ripresa è vicina, con un tasso di crescita della pubblicità televisiva del 5% e di quella online del 10,6%. (ANSA)
Il summary in inglese
Seizing the initiative: as growth goes digital, advertising spearheads the migration
Advertising will outpace consumer spending in the migration to digital; imperative for companies to apply a ‘digital mindset’ to build the right behaviours to monetise the digital consumer.
Total entertainment and media spending on digital (excluding spend on Internet access) is forecast to grow at a 12.2% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) between 2013 and 2018 and account for 65% of global entertainment and media spending growth – almost two out of every three dollars. Advertising is leading the way; in 2018, 33% of total advertising revenue is forecast to be digital, compared to 17% of consumer revenue. However, monetising the digital consumer will not just be about the application of technology. It will be about applying a ‘digital mindset’ to build the right behaviours, advancing from a digital strategy – to a business strategy fit for a digital age, according to PwC’s Global entertainment and media outlook 2014-2018 (Outlook).
Approaching a significant advertising tipping point
Mobile Internet penetration will reach 55% in 2018, which will help drive digital advertising to increase its share from 14% of total advertising revenue in 2009 to 33% by 2018. With Internet advertising growing at a 10.7% CAGR (compared to a total advertising CAGR of 4.4%), the industry is approaching a significant tipping point: in 2018, Internet advertising will be poised to overtake TV advertising. In 2009, TV advertising was double that of Internet advertising, but in 2018, Internet advertising will only be trailing TV advertising by a mere US$20bn. In particular, significant gains in mobile Internet advertising are forecast with a CAGR of 21.5%.
Monetising the digital consumer: challenge and opportunity
Spending on digitally delivered content will only account for 17% of total consumer spending in 2018 (excluding spending on Internet access), compared to 33% of total advertising spending. However, the growth of ‘24/7 access’ and micro-transactions suggest that the key to monetising the digital consumer is to adopt flexible business models that offer more choice and better experiences. Electronic home video over-the-top (OTT)/streaming and digital music streaming are two of the fastest-growing consumer sub-segments in the Outlook, set to rise at a CAGR of 28.1% and 13.4% respectively.
Nine markets driving growth
Nine high-growth markets are powering global entertainment and media revenue. China, Brazil, Russia, India, Mexico, South Africa, Turkey, Argentina and Indonesia are markets to watch, collectively forecast to account for 21.7% of global entertainment and media revenue in 2018, up from just 12.4% in 2009. In the same year, a major tipping point will occur: China will overtake Japan as the world’s second-largest entertainment and media market, behind only the US.
Marcel Fenez, PwC’s Global leader, entertainment and media, says:
“What all these markets have in common is a growing middle class boosting spending in entertainment and media. But the similarities stop here. Realising the revenue potential of these markets demands a deep understanding of the local context and appropriate market segmentation. Differing local tastes, pricing expectations, and the predominant delivery platforms will ultimately determine what entertainment and media content consumers in each market will be willing to pay for. Given their intimate local market knowledge, domestic organisations are in prime position to realise the opportunity of the emerging middle class in each market. The optimal approach for international players will most certainly be to collaborate with local partners. The growing middle class may be a global trend, but the opportunity is more localised.”
Andrea Samaja, PwC Italy Consulting Leader, underlines how: ‘‘after being hit by the worst economic recession of its recent history, Italy is finally meeting a positive outlook. Our data and insights, which are going to be published in the aftermath of summer, show evidences of the recovery in key segments such as total TV subscriptions ( CAGR 3,5% ) and total TV advertising ( CAGR 5% ). However, the growth is going to be driven by the digital industry and the mobile Internet in particular. PwC forecasts that by the end of 2018 there will be 52.3mn mobile Internet subscribers, giving Italy a mobile Internet penetration of 85.3%, up from 33.1mn at end-2013 ( CAGR 9,6% ). Furthermore, Italy appears to be the fourth-largest Internet advertising market in Europe and its total Internet advertising revenue is expected to with a CAGR of 10.6% over the forecasted period’’. These outlook set a contest where the traditional advertising players (e.g. Broadcasters and Publishers) will need to be strategically able to set an integrated approach in a multichannel environment to maintain and increase their advertising market share.
Advertising is spearheading the migration to digital as it follows eyeballs online…
Internet TV advertising will double its share of total TV advertising revenue in the next five years. Internet TV advertising revenue from traditional broadcasters will increase from US$3.7bn in 2013 to US$9.7bn in 2018, and more than double its share of total TV advertising from 2.2% in 2013 to 4.5% in 2018. Traditional broadcasters still dominate and are adapting to the Internet video opportunity, so creating themselves a significant new revenue stream, despite competition from Internet rivals.
Mobile advertising will overtake classified Internet advertising in 2014. Global mobile Internet advertising revenue is forecast to leapfrog classified Internet advertising to become the third-largest Internet advertising channel with revenues of US$18.9bn in 2014. But after four particularly strong years between 2010 and 2013, driven by the launch of a range of tablets, the annual rate of mobile revenue growth is falling back to the levels seen prior to their introduction and advertisers must do more than simply migrating large-screen banners to handhelds to ensure that such growth can be sustained.
Digital consumer magazine advertising revenue is much larger than digital circulation. Global digital consumer magazine advertising revenue will be US$12.4bn in 2018, rising at a 17.6% CAGR; digital circulation revenue will be just US$5.7bn in the same year. This compares to a decline of -3.9% CAGR for consumer magazine print advertising revenue. Currently advertising is centred on magazine websites, but, as digital circulations increase, electronic editions will become increasingly popular for advertisers.
Digital out-of-home (DOOH) advertising revenue will see significant growth in the fast-growth markets. DOOH advertising is driving overall OOH advertising growth globally at a CAGR of 16.2%. However, in certain fast-growing markets overall, DOOH advertising revenue is forecast to grow even more rapidly, with CAGRs in excess of 30%, and China is set to become the largest DOOH advertising market in the world by 2017.
…while success in monetising the digital consumer can be found in offering choice and better experiences
Subscription TV will not be daunted by the rise of OTT, as it grows across global markets. Global subscription TV revenues (excluding licence fees) will grow at a CAGR of 3.5% over the next five years to US$236bn in 2018. This growth demonstrates that subscription TV is in a healthy position, assisted by the initiatives it has implemented to counter the impact of OTT and other disruptive influences.
Box office resilience underscores the continuing popularity of the cinematic experience. Global box office revenue will exceed revenue from physical home video in 2014 and grow over the forecast period to US$45.9bn by 2018, from US$36.1bn in 2013, at a 4.9% CAGR. In many growth markets, there is a new, affluent middle class; in these markets, cinemas are being built in increasing numbers to cater for these audiences.
Digital newspaper payments are taking off, but won’t prove transformational. Digital newspaper circulation revenue grew by 66.2% through 2013. But despite individual publishers reporting improved fortunes, few are hailing a transformation – digital circulation will make up just 8% of total circulation revenue globally by 2018.
Rising digital consumer revenue may be driven by 24/7 access. Two of the best-performing consumer sub-segments use a model in which consumers pay for round-the-clock access: digital music streaming, where revenue will grow at a 13.4% CAGR, and electronic home video OTT/streaming, set to rise at a 28.1% CAGR. Growth rates such as these will not only offset a slow-moving non-digital consumer market, but may also point the way forward for other segments.
Global electronic home video revenue will exceed physical home video revenue in 2018. Globally, the total combined revenue from OTT/streaming services and broadcasters’ video on demand services will grow at a CAGR of 19.9% to overtake physical home video revenue (the sale and rental of DVDs and Blu-ray discs) in 2018.
Digital recorded music revenue will surpass physical recorded revenue in 2014. Global total digital recorded music revenue will exceed physical recorded music revenue for the first time in 2014, at US$10.18bn against US$10.17bn, respectively. Growth in digital has given consumers greater choice and allowed many different formats to flourish. Greater service appeal for consumers will improve sales and by 2018, the year-on-year decline in total recorded music revenue will be just -0.1%.
All-you-can-read subscription services are yet to take off but will be transformational. While they are still to gain traction, with a number of subscription services and paid-for aggregators on the market, user numbers are soon to reach critical mass. With growing magazine circulations will come rising circulation and advertising revenue.
Internet gaming is widening gaming participation and micro-transactions are helping to grow revenues. Internet gaming (including social gaming) has opened up markets previously considered lost to piracy, with the business model enabling greater freedom and choice in how much gamers pay. China is the second-largest market for Internet gaming (US$4.2bn in 2013 with a 7.9% CAGR from 2013-2018), while in 2017 Russia (standing at US$588mn in that year with a 13.8% CAGR from 2013-2018) will overtake Germany to become the seventh-largest market for Internet gaming. Micro-transactions will help grow total video games revenues to US$89.0bn (6.2% CAGR) in 2018 and total console games revenues to US$31.9bn (4.9% CAGR) in 2018.
Marcel Fenez, PwC’s Global leader, entertainment & media, concludes:
“The bedrock of a strategy fit for the digital age is the digital mindset: getting ever closer to the customer – across the entire organisation, and in everything it does. We now see that mindset embedded in many entertainment and media companies. But the industry needs to get even closer to the consumer and adopt more flexible business models. To do this, companies must exhibit three behaviors: forging trust with consumers; creating the confidence to move with speed and agility; and empowering innovation. This will be an important step in monetising the digital consumer.”
To conclude, Andrea Samaja claims that ‘‘ knowing and understanding the changes that are taking place in the entertainment & media industry is no longer sufficient to undertake a top-level business activity. In fact, the high-speed proved by the sector plus the burst of new actors are forcing even the main global firms to endow themselves with an original and updated digital mindset.
On this stage, proving to be well-advanced in developing and implementing a more targeted and customer-centric system, is the key for companies to maintain and enlarge their market shares. Furthermore, the global scenario suggests that shifting toward the establishment of new synergies and even new mergers, represents a profitable way to undertake a cost-saving strategy able to optimize costs and to recover a profit margin in the business’ key sectors ’’